African Arguments

In Sudan – the once hoped-for breadbasket of the Arab world – deadly unrest, sparked by a hugely unpopular decision to lift fuel subsidies, has made it abundantly clear that the country is struggling to maintain its current political order.

Media commentary on the now-concluded siege of the Westgate mall in Nairobi demonstrates widespread recognition that a major shift has occurred in al Shabaab’s targets and threat-level. Where the media seems to slightly misinterpret the attack is explaining Westgate as a sudden dramatic increase in al Shabaab’s abilities. More than a dramatic jump in capacity, the attack shows a change in focus and motivation by al Shabaab’s core planners.

Richard Dowden’s last point in his blog posted on 27 September – that the Westgate massacres will spell the end of the International Criminal Court (ICC) – should not pass without challenge. Behind his prediction lies an argument often used before, eg during the Cold War, to justify support for or tolerance of poor governments and poor governance. Some infamous previous events in Kenya have accordingly not been resolved. Following the horror at Westgate, some seem to think a choice must be made between bolstering Kenya in its fight against terror and letting off its President and his deputy from their cases at the ICC.

Noman Benotman, President of the anti-radicalisation Quilliam Foundation, has told African Arguments that Al Shabaab’s Westgate attack has put it “to the top of the premier league” of global jihadists. Benotman, formerly a commander in the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, compared the Westgate events with those of the In Amenas Algerian hostage incident in January 2013: “It is almost exactly the same source of tactics as the In Amenas attack, the same planning – from a professional perspective.”