Perception vs Reality: Illegal Migration in Decline Share This /

Customs and Border Protection Deputy Commissioner David Aguilar.

This post was written by WOLA Fellow Lucila Santos.

On July 16, at the National Governors Association 2011 Annual Meeting, Governors Jan Brewer (R-Arizona) and Martin O'Malley (D-Maryland) co-chaired the National Governors’ Association Special Committee on Homeland Security and Public Safety. The meeting included, among others, guest speaker David Aguilar, deputy commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). To see video of the discussion, click here.

Despite compelling evidence to the contrary, the widespread perception is that U.S. border states are suffering from drug-related violence spilling over from Mexico. Ali Noorani, executive director of the National Immigration Forum, called it “the politics of fear.” [This dynamic resembles current debates on insecurity in the Southern Cone, like Argentina, where the perception of insecurity far outstrips the real rates of crime and homicide.)

Deputy Commissioner Aguilar’s presentation offered a general look at the size of CBP and its work in protecting the 7,000 mile-US border. He also addressed southwest border security in light of Mexico’s increasing violence and the fears of spillover into bordering states. Following are some of the most important points Aguilar made:

· Aguilar stressed that violence rates have fallen dramatically in border states in the last 10 years and thus, border communities are today safer than ever. He gave some figures: violent crime rates decreased 17% in San Diego, 22% in Tucson, 11% in McAllen (Texas) and 36% in El Paso.

· El Paso is next door to the most violent city in the world, Ciudad Juárez, which saw over 3,000 murders last year. Contrastingly, in El Paso, last fiscal year, there were only 10 murders, none of which were drug or cartel related.

· Aguilar mentioned that in border states’ law enforcement and border security communities, there is a lot of frustration regarding the common perception that bordering states are insecure and risk a violent spill-over from Mexico. Yet, the truth is that the border has never been as safe and strong as today. He cited USA Today’s investigation published July 15^th, which found that “rates of violent crime along the U.S.-Mexico border have been falling for years.” Aguilar mentions that he knows and works with those interviewed in the article, and confirmed their view of border security and the non-existence of spillover violence.

· Aguilar said that 2000 was the year in which apprehensions of illegal migrants peaked. Since then, there has been an 80% decline in illegal crossing apprehensions at all US borders and coast lines. So far, in FY 2011, 257,000 apprehensions have been carried out. From these, 106,000 were apprehended in Arizona, 42% of the total.

· In the last year, there was a 44% reduction in illegal crossings apprehensions in Arizona alone, and 31% in total in the southwest border zone.

· Aguilar pointed out that, beyond the fact that eradicating illegal immigration is impossible, there will always be a “baseline flow” of illegal immigrants as long as the draw to migrate to the United States continues to exist, especially since Americans continue to hire undocumented migrants as cheap labor. Likewise, Aguilar mentioned that the same is true for drug trafficking: as long as people continue to consume drugs, these will continue to flow into the United States.

· Because illegal crossings have decreased, evidenced by the decline in apprehensions, Aguilar explained that CBP has now more time and resources to concentrate on drug trafficking.

Governor Brewer commented on Aguilar’s presentation, stating that her administration is advocating for a law that penalizes those that hire undocumented workers. However, she seemed adamantly opposed to Aguilar’s argument about the safety of border states, arguing that “operational control” over the border is only at 44 percent. She called for more forces, troops, and technology. She used as evidence her ‘eyes and ears” in Arizona, what the citizens tell her, what she sees in the streets.

Aguilar responded that the largest number of agents is stationed in Arizona. In addition, he also mentioned that last year, 42% of illegal aliens apprehended in Phoenix by local law enforcement had crossed the border in the last 3 to 30 days, while the rest had been in the country for more than a year. This year that figure dropped to less than 20%.

Aguilar’s testimony matches recent reporting by Damien Cave of the New York Times about a decline in illegal immigration due to better economic, demographic and social conditions in Mexico, along with the poor economy or legal crackdowns in the United States. In his piece, Cave explains that the decrease in birth rates in Mexico is reducing “the pool of likely migrants.”

In the 1990s, Mexico had around one million new potential job seekers each year, while by 2007 that number had dropped to 800,000. Education and employment opportunities have expanded: “per capita gross domestic product and family income have each jumped more than 45 percent since 2000.” Politically, “Democracy is better established, incomes have generally risen and poverty has declined.” Meanwhile the cost and risks of crossing the border have sharply increased. The possibility of being kidnapped by the Zetas or caught by U.S. agents is higher, as are the fees for being crossed over by coyotes.

These are examples of the pull and push factors that affect migration. As a result, illegal immigration is not only an exclusive security issue or an entirely American problem. It is a multidimensional problem cross-cut by economic, social, political and security concerns in both countries. These factors need to be taken into account when analyzing and designing migration and border policies.