Update on Honduras: Events over the past 24 hours Share This /

As noted yesterday, ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya somehow made his way back to Honduras yesterday, showing up at the Brazilian embassy and catching the de facto regime off guard. Details of how he was able to successfully enter Honduras and travel to Tegucigalpa - without alerting the de facto government or being arrested by the Honduran police or military - remains a question for everyone, including the United States Department of State and Costa Rican President Oscar Arias. Zelaya did tell the BBC that he "traveled for more than 15 hours ... through rivers and mountains until we reached the capital of Honduras.... We overcame military and police obstacles, all those on the highways here, because this country has been kidnapped by the military forces." Now that Zelaya is back in Honduras, what happens next remains a question for everyone following the recent turn of events. According to the Center for International Policy, there are multiple options:

• Micheletti is vowing to arrest Zelaya, but that appears unlikely since the President is technically on Brazilian soil and surrounded by a large number of supporters.
• Zelaya is offering to negotiate; if Micheletti digs in his heels and refuses, the result could be a long standoff in the middle of Tegucigalpa - one that risks outbreaks of violence in the capital and elsewhere.
• Unless, of course, the political ground under him caves in completely, and Micheletti has to give up power unilaterally - but that is far from certain given the solidity of elite and armed-forces support he appears to enjoy. For now, the coup government has the guns, and most of the political class, on its side.
• The best outcome would be for Micheletti immediately to accept the dialogue offer and reach an agreement to restore democratic order. An agreement, perhaps, along the lines of the San José Accord, which allows for Zelaya's return with no further re-election discussion and a mutual amnesty. (The latter is probably necessary because both sides can credibly be accused of having broken Honduran law.)

It appears that there will be a prolonged stand-off between Zelaya and the de facto government. We will provide daily updates on the blog regarding what has happened in the past 24 hours. Here is what has happened since our update yesterday.

• The OAS held a special meeting in Washington yesterday to discuss the unfolding events in Honduras. While Nicaragua and Venezuela opposed a declaration that included the San José Accord, the OAS General Assembly passed a Declaration "in which the organization 'calls for the immediate signing of the San José Agreement', demands full guarantees to ensure the life and physical integrity of President José Manuel Zelaya Rosales, and supports the initiatives undertaken by the Secretary General José Miguel Insulza to facilitate dialogue and restoration of the constitutional order in Honduras."
• OAS Secretary General Insulza hopes to travel to Honduras as soon as possible in order to facilitate a dialogue between the de facto government and Zelaya. He initially intended to travel to Honduras today, but has had to postpone his trip because Micheletti has closed all of the international airports in Honduras. Insulza also stated that "I want to go when I am sure that I will help the dialogue. I am not interested in participating in a conflict." Costa Rican President Oscar Arias also remarked that if both parties request it, he too would travel to Honduras to facilitate the adoption of an agreement between both parties. According to Arias, who facilitated the dialogues leading to the San José Accord, Zelaya's return to Honduras "makes it easier ... for us to put some more pressure on the de facto government to sign the San José Accord and, well, there is need for more dialogue, for sure. That dialogue can take place in Tegucigalpa or in San Jose, Costa Rica, if it was necessary. But the main difficulty has been Zelaya's return. Now that he's back, it's going to be much easier."
• Many governments fear that the unfolding events in Honduras could lead to violent confrontations between pro-Zelaya and pro-coup groups (including the Honduran police and military), instigating official statements calling for the safety of Zelaya and his supporters. OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza: "I would like to call for calm to all stakeholders in this process, and stress to the authorities of the de facto government that they should be responsible for the safety of President Zelaya and the Embassy of Brazil." U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: "Both sides have supporters who need to be restrained and careful in their actions in the days ahead.... We have spoken directly to multiple parties and very clearly said that there had to be calm and peace in the streets." European Union: "The European Union urges all concerned to refrain from any action that might increase tension and violence."
• De facto president Micheletti called on the government of Brazil to "respect the judicial order against Mr. Zelaya and turn his in to Honduran authorities." Brazil's Foreign Minister Celso Amorim responded with a warning that "any threat to Mr. Zelaya or the Brazilian embassy would be a grave breach of international law." Zelaya has said he would not be surprised if the Micheletti government invades the Brazilian embassy in order to arrest him. However, the Honduran police have denied that this would happen. However, the light, water and telephone service to the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa has been cut off, inciting Zelaya to accuse the de facto government of attempting to "asphyxiate" the embassy. "I think they are going to employ a strategy of asphyxiating the embassy by surrounding it, cutting off the food supply, asphyxiating the people inside in order to demonstrate their force and power, and to try and humiliate the people in here who are really trying to find a solution, for dialogue at a national level"
• The de facto Micheletti government imposed a 15 hour curfew in Tegucigalpa, starting at 4:00 pm yesterday, by this morning, the curfew had been extended to 26 hours. All four international airports in Honduras have also been closed News outlets report that many Zelaya supporters ignored the curfew and remained outside the Brazilian embassy, where Zelaya is staying. By Tuesday morning, riot-police had dispersed the crowds with tear gas, jets of water and clubs and allegedly issued multiple arrests. The Chair of the OAS Permanent Council released a statement Tuesday morning, in which he "condemned and regretted ... the violent events occurred this morning around the Embassy of Brazil in Honduras." The Honduran Embassy in Washington has also posted a statement on its website condemning "the use of violence and intimidation by military and police forces controlled by the illegitimate government of Micheletti against the people of Honduras."
• The Washington Post published an op-ed by de facto President Micheletti today, titled "Moving Forward in Honduras," in which Micheletti claims that his government is both legitimate and democratic and that he will not step down until January 27th, when the candidate elected in the November 29th elections will take over. "The winner of the November election will take office as president of Honduras in January 2010. At that moment my transitional administration will cease, and the newly sworn-in president will hold all the authority vested to him by our country's constitution." In the op-ed, Micheletti supports his argument by stating that "coups do not allow freedom of assembly, either. They do not guarantee freedom of the press, much less respect for human rights. In Honduras, these freedoms remain intact and vibrant." Various reports, however, have condemned human rights violations, press censorship and repression of non-violent protests by the de facto regime since June 28th.
• Porfirio Lobo, one of the presidential candidates who supported the coup, has threatened to drop his support for the de facto regime if the Micheletti government does not negotiate with Zelaya.
• The U.S. State Department released the following statement on the situation in Honduras:

  The United States calls on all parties to remain calm and avoid actions that might provoke violence in Honduras, and place individuals at risk or harm. We urge that all parties refrain from actions that would lead to further unrest. We stress the need for dialogue; the United States supports the proposed mission by the Organization of American States to promote this dialogue. We encourage the parties to sign and implement immediately the San José Accord, which remains the best approach to resolve this crisis. We stress the importance of respecting the inviolability of the Embassy of Brazil in Tegucigalpa and the individuals on its premises. We note with appreciation the de facto authority's statement last night promising to respect the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations of 1961, to which Honduras is a party. Respect and protection for the inviolability of diplomatic premises is a universally accepted principle of international relations.

• De facto President Micheletti announced his desire to begin a dialogue with all sectors of society and impartial foreign diplomats. "We will establish a committee without the people who have been intervening previously." Micheletti solicited the participation of "an impartial party from the United Nations who can come to hear the position of the Hondurans."