Upcoming elections in Latin America Share This /

Seven Latin American countries will hold presidential elections in the next 12 months. Analysts are watching the polls closely to see if the region will continue its movement to the left, or if more moderate or right-wing candidates will prevail. While the last wave of elections overwhelmingly elected candidates from the left and center-left, an article in El Nuevo Herald argues that moderate candidates are gaining ground in many countries: "As of now, the majority of campaigns appear to be based more in the economic situation than ideology. And the influence of leftist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in the region may have reached its high point with [the 2008 peak of] high oil prices." The article concludes that "a large part of analysts agree that the next elections probably will confirm that the majority of the Latin American left is democratic and that Chavez's version of '21st Century Socialism' probably will not extend beyond the territory it already controls in Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua." Here is a calendar of upcoming elections in the region, leading candidates, the most recent polls, and relevant excerpts from El Nuevo Herald's article: Uruguay: October 25, 2009

• "In Uruguay, José Mujica, imprisoned between 1973 and 1985 for his guerrilla activities with the Tupamaros and now candidate for the Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition [of leftist parties that backed President Tabaró Vásquez], appears poised for a second round against the center-right ex-President Luis Alberto Lacalle if neither win a majority in the first round. Muijca has run his campaign in a pragmatic way that favors some private investment in state businesses, while Lacalle has presented himself as a centrist that looks to maintain the majority of the country's broad social benefits."
• Recent poll (8/24/09)
• José Mujica (Broad Front) - 44%
• Luis Alberto Lacalle (National Party) - 35%
• Pedro Bordaberry (Colorado Party) - 10%
• Honduras: November 29, 2009
• "In Honduras, Elvin Santos, from the Partido Liberal (Liberal Party), was leading Porfirio Lobo, from the Partido Nacional (National Party), until liberal President Manuel Zelaya was ousted and obligated to go into exile on June 28th. Lobo has an advantage in the polls, while Santos has fought to unify his party, divided between supporters and opponents of Zelaya, before the elections on November 29th."
• The United States and the Organization of American States have both expressed concern regarding the legitimacy of the upcoming elections in Honduras if they are carried out under the de facto coup government of Roberto Micheletti.
• Recent poll (8/31/09)
• Porfirio Lobo (National Party) - 42%
• Elvin Santos (Liberal Party) - 37%
• Chile: December 11, 2009
• "In Chile, center-right businessman Sebastián Piñera, one of the owners of LAN airlines, is ahead in the polls of Eduardo Frei, a candidate of the coalition party of Bachelet and Marco Enríquez-Ominami, from the Coalición por el Cambio (Coalition for Change), of the center-left." Piñera lost the 2005 election in a runoff with President Michele Bachelet.
• Recent Poll (9/8/09)
• Sebastián Piñera (Alliance for Chile) - 37%
• Eduardo Frei (Concertación) - 25%
• Marco Enríquez-Ominami (Coalition for Change) - 18%
• Bolivia: December 6, 2009
• "It is almost certain that the left will win in Bolivia, where even the most outspoken critics of President Evo Morales predict his reelection on December 6th and that he will continue carrying the country towards Chávez's '21st Century Socialism.'"
• Recent poll (9/4/09)
• Evo Morales - 57.7%
• Samuel Doria Medina (National Unity Front) - 9.7%
• Manfred Reyes Villa (New Republican Force) - 8.6%
• Jorge Quiroga (Social and Democratic Power) - 7.2%
• Costa Rica: February 2010
• "In Costa Rica, it appears that the candidate of President Oscar Arias' Partido Liberación Nacional (National Liberation Party), Laura Chinchilla, will easily defeat Ottón Solís, from the center-left Acción Ciudadana (Citizen Action), in the February elections, and that she will continue the moderate economic and social policies of Arias."
• Recent poll (8/19/09)
• Laura Chinchilla (National Liberation Party) - 43%
• Ottón Solís (Citizen Action) - 26%
• Otto Guevara (Libertarian Movement) - 8%
• Rafael Ángel Calderón (Christian Social Unity) - 6%
• Colombia: May 2010
• "Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, very popular and one of the true conservatives in the region, has not officially announced if he will run for reelection in May if Congress and the Supreme Court abolish the constitutional prohibition to governing more than 2 consecutive presidential terms."
• "Without Uribe, the competition will probably be between Juan Manuel Santos, the ex-Minister of Defense from the center-right, who led a popular and successful campaign against the leftist guerrillas, the FARC, and the center-left candidate Sergio Fajardo, who in his four years as mayor of Medellin was able to substantially reduce the crime rate."
• Recent Poll (9/7/09) If Uribe runs:
• Alvaro Uribe (Independent backed by several parties) - 54.5%
• Sergio Fajardo (Independent) - 8.96%
• If Uribe does not run:
• Juan Manuel Santos (Social National Unity Party)- 16.5%
• Sergio Fajardo - 13%
• Brazil: October 3, 2010
• "The greatest prize in play will be Brazil - the main economic and foreign policy leader in the region - where President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a very popular moderate from the left, is constitutionally prohibited from running in the elections on October 3, 2010. Lula da Silva has designated an old collaborator, Dilma Rousseff, as the preferred candidate for his Partido de los Trabajadores (Workers' Party). But Rousseff never has held public office and is fighting against cancer. Currently, the polls give the advantage to José Serra, the Governor of Sao Paulo, the economic capital of the country, who defends free-market economics."
• Recent poll (9/8/09)
• Jose Serra (Social Democracy Party) - 49.9%
• Dilma Rousseff (Workers' Party) - 25%