UNODC 2008 coca data for the Andean Region
The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crimel recently released its annual reports on Coca Cultivation in the Andean Region - namely in Peru, Colombia, and Bolivia. This year's surveys, which provide data for 2008 levels of coca cultivation, eradication and seizures, show that the number of hectares in cultivation of coca in Colombia decreased by 18% from 2007-2008, while cultivation in Peru increased by 4.5% and cultivation in Bolivia increased by 6%. Colombia's large decrease in coca cultivation in 2008 follows a substantial increase (27%) in production from 2006-2007, while Peru and Bolivia have both been experiencing a slow but steady climb in coca cultivation over the past few years. UNODC contends that, since many of Colombia’s remaining coca fields are recently planted, its estimate of tons of cocaine produced in Colombia fell even more sharply, from 600 to 430 tons. As a result, Colombia's percentage share of cocaine in the world market decreased from 60% in 2007 to 51% in 2008. Peru's and Bolivia's shares have both increased as a result of Colombia's decline, resulting in Peru contributing to 36% of world production (up from 29% in 2007) and Bolivia contributing to 13% of world production. Seizures of cocaine in the three countries have also increased significantly since 2007, with Colombia reporting a 57% increase, Peru a 100% increase and Bolivia a 148% increase. The increases in the number of hectares under cultivation with coca in Peru and Bolivia could be attributed to failed domestic policies (drug-war hardliners have argued that Bolivia's policies on coca cultivation, which allow 12,000 hectares of cultivation – and, in fact, tolerate a bit more – solely for medicinal and local use, are to blame for Bolivia's increase). However, another contributing factor could be the "balloon effect," a theory that argues that as long as demand is strong, coca cultivation will merely be pushed into new areas as it is squeezed out of existing coca cultivating areas. Therefore, as Colombia more aggressively eradicates coca plants and seizes cocaine and coca paste, the production of coca and cocaine will merely be pushed elsewhere in the Andes. In support of the "balloon effect" theory, the table above indicates that since 1998, the total coca cultivation in the Andean region has not changed significantly - with 191,000 hectares in cultivation in 1998 compared to 167,600 hectares in 2008, even though cultivation in Colombia has decreased almost 50% since the beginning of Plan Colombia in 1999. Also, the graph below, which shows coca cultivation in the Andean Region since 1988, exemplifies this balloon effect phenomenon. From 1988-1997 Peru was the number one coca cultivator in the region, after which the cultivation of coca moved more prominently into Colombia, leaving this country in the number one spot until today. However, as shown by the graph, Peru is once again starting to catch up with Colombia.