What the NATO Summit Could Mean for Georgia
Policymakers, analysts and journalists generally agree that the 2014 NATO Summit, which will be held on September 4th – 5th in Wales, United Kingdom will be very different from the Alliance’s past meetings. Although the Ukraine crisis will undoubtedly shape collective decision-making, similarities between the conflict in Ukraine and Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 also mean that Georgia – and its long-held NATO membership aspirations – will be a topic of discussion at this week’s summit.
Russian-Georgian relations have a significant influence on NATO’s and America’s defense cooperation with the small Caucasian nation. Russia views the expanding scope of the NATO-Georgia partnership as a threat and sees moves toward Georgian membership as provocations. Most significantly, Russian tanks rolled into Georgia just a few months after the Alliance promised Georgia eventual membership at the NATO Bucharest Summit in April 2008. Interpretations of Russia’s aggressive actions vary: some argue that it was essentially a hostile reaction to NATO’s pledge, while others maintain that NATO’s refusal to offer concrete security guarantees to Georgia invited Russian military action. The Alliance is still grappling with this chicken and egg problem in its relationships with Allies and partners throughout the former Soviet bloc.
For the above reasons, the United States has been careful in managing its security assistance relationship with Georgia. After the country’s 2008 war with Russia, for example, the United States halted all military equipment sales for fear of antagonizing Russia. Despite a subsequent congressional mandate to normalize defense ties with Georgia in fiscal year 2012, the extent of arms sales to Georgia does not come close to 2008 levels. In fiscal year 2008, the United States approved an estimated $155 million worth of arms sales to Georgia compared with an estimated $25 million in fiscal year 2012. However, the United States began to provide military assistance to Georgia at levels similar to 2008 levels in fiscal year 2012.
Given the radically changed security context within and near NATO’s borders, the Alliance and the United States could be willing to shoulder more risk in its policy toward Georgia this time around. There are essentially three options on the table in terms of possible Georgian membership: 1) extend Georgia a Membership Action Plan (MAP), 2) Hybrid membership and 3) no membership plan or security guarantee. One possible route to joining the Alliance is a MAP, which Georgian officials have supported. According to official statements, Georgia will not receive a MAP at this summit, but will receive a “substantive package” of support intended to bring the country closer to NATO instead.
In terms of hybrid paths toward membership, Georgian officials are willing to accept a compromise that would exclude their breakaway territories (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) from the Alliance’s Article V defense guarantee. Alternatively, NATO could create an immediate Article V status for Georgia that would lead to eventual membership. Since the MAP does not immediately provide security assurances, this route would likely deter Russia from lashing out over a new NATO policy on Georgian membership. The final option, of course, is to completely withhold security guarantees. Considering divisions within the Alliance on the issue, the MAP option is highly unlikely, but recent promises of increased cooperation and the rapidly deteriorating security situation in the region mean that a hybrid plan cannot be ruled out.
Another factor that could tip the defense cooperation scales in Georgia’s favor is the fact that the country is set to participate in the NATO Response Force (NRF) in 2015. The NRF, which was established in 2002, is a contingent of around 13,000 high-readiness troops intended for rapid deployment in case of a crisis. In a joint statement, Georgian Defense Minister Irakli Alasania and NATO General Knud Bartels announced that Georgia will contribute troops to the NRF with U.S. financial support, which opens the door for increased military aid. Even though NATO officials recently pointed to continuing issues preventing them from approving Georgian membership, this year’s NATO Summit will be the most significant one so far for the Georgians, and the overall stakes of the meeting will be the highest in recent memory.