U.S. Southern Command Posture Hearings in Congress
U.S. Southern Command (Southcom) and U.S. Northern Command (Northcom) released their annual posture statements this week. In releasing the posture statements, the commanders of both Southcom (General John Kelly) and Northcom (General Charles Jacoby, Jr.) also testified in front of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees.
Most of the discussion at both hearings centered on how the sequester cuts will affect Southcom's and Northcom's operations. Before the sequester, the Pentagon budget was already going to be cut by $487 billion over 10 years, as agreed to in an August 2011 budget law. On March 1 of this year, another $43 billion in cuts went into effect. Southcom commander, General John Kelly, said Southern Command is the "economy of force command," meaning that it is already working on a small budget and that with the cuts it will be forced "to do less with less."
The topics discussed at the hearings included:
- The effects of the sequester: fewer ships, fewer engagements, decreased presence and a projected decrease in drug interdiction;
- Increasing Iranian and Chinese influence in the region;
- Guantánamo Bay;
- The global illicit market, referred to as, “The Network;”
- The flow of drugs back to the Caribbean, as well as through Brazil and over to Africa;
- The border; and
- Colombia as a model.
The House hearing can be watched in full (2 hr) here, and the Southern Command posture statement can be accessed here.
There will be fewer engagements and trainings
In Southcom commander Gen. Kelly's posture statement and testimonies, he reiterated that the sequester cuts would negatively effect U.S. presence and partnerships in the region, causing many countries to question the United States' commitment to the region.
"The concern on the part of many of our Latin American friends and partners is that we're withdrawing," Gen. Kelly said. He reiterated that, "they all want us in their lives, with a few exceptions. It means a lot that we’re down there." "I'm a rock star when I show up," he said later in a press conference at the Pentagon.
Yesterday, before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee (HASC), he said sequestration cuts would force military-to-military engagements to be cut by 50 percent. In the Appendix of the posture statement, Gen. Kelly lists a few of the canceled engagements.
In his testimony, Gen. Kelly also underscored that while U.S. presence in the region is already low, if that presence drops, nations from other regions will be there to step in and fill the void, which could have long-term negative effects on U.S. leadership in the region.
"It's hard to argue that the U.S. should be the partner of choice there when we aren't partnering there." He mentioned that other countries, like China, and in some cases Russia, have already started to replace the U.S.
There will be fewer ships
In both testimonies, Gen. Kelly said the number of ships performing Southern Command's counternarcotics duties would drop from five or six ships to one or none. Kelly said his ideal ship fleet would number 14. "Every ship I lose, you lose 20-25 tons of cocaine seized," he said in a press conference at the Pentagon.
With the current number of ships (and this includes Coast Guard cutters), Southcom seized 150-200 tons of cocaine in 2012. As stated by Gen. Kelly in yesterday's Senate hearing, that is only about 20 percent of all drugs estimated to enter the U.S. (by some numbers). The Obama Administration has set a goal for 40 percent to be interdicted by 2015.
As WOLA's Adam Isacson noted on his blog, Southcom's posture statement projects the budget cut will result in 62 tons less this year. The overall point of all discussions was that there would be fewer ships, meaning more drugs will reach the United States in 2013.
Iran and China
There were a fair number of questions about both Iran and China in both hearings.
In his testimony before the HASC, Gen. Kelly said that while China is economically aggressive in the region, it is not a threat. As for Iran, he noted the government has been trying to expand economically and politically into the region, but has gained little traction and there "is nothing to be too concerned about" as an immediate threat.
Gen. Kelly expanded on China's involvement a bit more in the hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee. He noted the Chinese have increased military-to-military relations in the region -- they deployed a hospital ship and paid for some military commanders in the hemisphere to be trained in China. He also noted that the Chinese have been increasingly selling military hardware to anyone who will buy it and that while American equipment was higher quality, purchasers get tired of waiting to go through the bureaucracy. He then said that private companies were not "picking up the slack" because of restrictions.
"The Network"
General Kelly cited "the Network," or the global illicit market, as the biggest threat to security in the hemisphere. This "network of networks" is "a very dangerous thing to have working as effectively as is does" because "almost anything can get on that network and move with an efficiency that rivals anything Federal Express can do. There are 1,200 hubs in the U.S. now." Both Gen. Kelly and Northcom commander Gen. Jacoby went on to explain several times how drug money fuels "the Network" with the money going to human trafficking, Islamic extremist groups and into the sex trade. Both commanders said that not enough is being done to target the Network, but that they "understand the Network in the same way [they] understand Al Qaeda."
Flow of drugs
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The flow of drugs is going back to the Caribbean.
General Kelly noted that in the late 1980s and early 1990s, all drugs moved through the Caribbean, but U.S. counternarcotics operations stopped that flow, pushing the routes through Central America up into Mexico. Now with "Operation Martillo," a surge operation in the Caribbean and along Central America's coasts that has been "fairly successful," General Kelly said traffickers are shifting back into the Caribbean.
- When questioned about what was being done to stem the flow of drugs and the associated increase in violence, particularly in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, General Kelly said Southcom is monitoring the problem closely, but that, "at the end of the day my responsibility is detection and monitoring. DEA, FBI, Treasury are in interdiction efforts, if I don’t have the budget I can't do anything but watch the drugs goes by."
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Brazil is the second-biggest cocaine consumer nation.
According to General Kelly, nearly all cocaine from Bolivia and Peru move into Brazil before being distributed to the domestic market or before moving on to West Africa, where the drug trade in increasingly funding organized criminal groups.
Guantánamo Bay
In both hearings, Guantánamo was brought up quite a bit, but particularly in the House where there was a lot of discussion about the facility and the conditions for detainees and troops. General Kelly insisted that the inmates were humanely treated and that the real issue was the living conditions for the troops. He said he would need $150 - $170 million for the type of renovation that needs to be done, including putting in medical care facilities for aging inmates.
Venezuela
In both the House and the Senate, committee members asked Gen. Kelly about U.S.- Venezuela relations after the death of Hugo Chávez. Gen. Kelly echoed what several analysts have said: That Vice President Nicolás Maduro, although he lacks the charm of Chávez, will likely win the election in April and not much will change in terms of relations with the U.S. General Kelly stressed that whoever does win the presidency will inherit a country plagued by high crime and a faltering economy.
Colombia as a model
Several times Gen. Kelly gave "a shout-out" to Colombia for being a "shining example of how to win a drug war." When questioned in the House how he would characterize the violence and what was being done to address it, Gen. Kelly responded by saying that the violence has gone down in the past 10-12 years and that is has been pushed away from population centers. He noted the U.S. is assisting Colombia with landmine removal, as the country has the second-highest number of landmine victims after Afghanistan.
Border
There were a few questions about the border and Mexico, which falls under Northern Command's purview. When asked about spillover violence, General Jacoby said Northcom was working with Mexico in routine border exercises and information sharing but that "security is going to remain a moving target, not geographically bound." He noted that violence has been decreasing in northern Mexico and been moving deeper into the country. He also said that drones and technology -- like sensors -- are key to keeping the border secure.