Update on Honduras: 13

11/10/09
Latin America and the Caribbean
U.S. Policy

One and a half weeks ago, on October 30th, it appeared that the political crisis in Honduras, instigated on June 28th after then-President Manuel Zelaya was removed from the country in his pajamas, was nearing an end. A high-level delegation of United States officials had left Honduras with an agreement signed between ousted President Zelaya and de facto President Roberto Micheletti, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that an historic breakthrough had occurred in Honduras.

As last week progressed, however, the "historic" deal appeared to be crumbling. Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Shannon said the United States will recognize the November 29th elections in Honduras whether or not Zelaya is reinstated, the Honduran Congress delayed a vote on the reinstatement of Zelaya, one of the steps required by the signed agreement. Zelaya sent Secretary Clinton a letter asking her to restate the United States' opinion on his reinstatement to the presidency, and finally, Micheletti created a unity government without Zelaya's participation, prompting Zelaya to denounce the deal as "dead."

Over the weekend, the Verification Commission appointed to oversee the implementation of the steps required in the signed Tegucigalpa-San José Accord, and an OAS delegation attempted to restart talks and move the deal forward. Yet this morning, it still appears to be where it was on Friday - stuck. And the elections are 19 days away.

The United States released a statement expressing disappointment at both sides' failure to implement the agreement, though it has left behind its calls for Zelaya's reinstatement and now rests its recognition of the November 29th elections on the new agreement, which does not guarantee Zelaya's return.

Here is a summary of events in Honduras since the Tegucigalpa-San José agreement was signed last Thursday.

  • On Friday, October 30th, it was announced that a deal had been signed late Thursday between ousted President Zelaya and de facto President Micheletti. Article 5 of this accord deferred the decision on Zelaya's restitution to the Honduran Congress:

    The National Congress, as an institutional expression of popular sovereignty, in the use of its powers, in consultation with the points that the Supreme Court of Justice should consider pertinent and in conformity with the law, should resolve in that proceeding in respect to "return the incumbency of Executive Power to its state previous to the 28 of June until the conclusion of the present governmental period, the 27 of January of 2010

    .
    The accord also:

    • Called for the formation of a Government of Unity and National Reconciliation;
    • Called for the creation of a Verification Commission to give "witness of the strict completion of all the points of this Accord;"
    • Denounced the convocation of a National Constituent Assembly or reform of the "unreformable" articles of the constitution;
    • Transferred oversight of the upcoming elections to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal;
    • Called for the normalization of the international community's relations with Honduras;
    • And set up a timeline for implementing the steps outlined in the agreement, with the appointment of the Verification Commission by November 2nd and the appointment and installation of the Government of Unity and National Reconciliation by November 5th.
  • From Pakistan, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced "we've had a breakthrough in negotiations in Honduras." She continued to express the historic nature of the event, saying "I cannot think of another example of a country in Latin America that having suffered a rupture of its democratic and constitutional order overcame such a crisis through negotiation and dialogue."
  • Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Thomas Shannon, in a teleconference on October 30th, announced that the agreement "effectively opens a pathway to resolve Honduras' current political crisis and that will allow the international community to support Honduras' elections on November 29th."

    Shannon also noted, in response to a question on why there was any thought that the Honduran Congress would return Zelaya to the presidency, that it was "because of the political dynamic inside the country."

  • By Monday, there was speculation that Assistant Secretary Shannon had made a deal with the presidential candidates and the Micheletti negotiators to guarantee Congress' vote to restore Zelaya to the presidency. Leading presidential candidate Porfirio Lobo announced that "I have not reached an agreement with the United States nor in any moment did I make a secret pact in a private meeting with Thomas Shannon." The negotiators for Micheletti also announced that "there is not an agreement under the table."
  • U.S. Labor Secretary Hilda Solis and former Chilean President Ricardo Lagos were named as the international representatives for the four-member Verification Commission. The other two members represent Honduras' two major political parties.
  • On Tuesday, the Honduran Congress was set to meet to discuss plans to vote on the issues outlined in the agreement. However, congressional leaders decided not to call Congress out of recess, and to instead delay the vote on whether or not Zelaya should return to the presidency. The Congress also requested opinions on the legality of Zelaya's return from the Supreme Court and the attorney general.
  • On Wednesday, ousted President Zelaya sent a letter to Secretary Clinton asking her to "clarify to the Honduran people if the position condemning the coup d'etat has been changed or modified." In response to the letter, State Department spokesman Ian Kelly noted that "Our position has been very clear from the very beginning that we did consider what happened in June in Honduras to be a coup. We've made our position on President Zelaya and his restitution clear. This is a - we believe he should be restored to power. This is now a Honduran process that was started by the agreement over the weekend."
  • Thursday evening, the deadline for the creation of the National Unity Government, ended with Zelaya's refusal to submit his list of members for the new Unity Government and Micheletti's decision to create the Unity Government anyway, with himself at the head.

    Earlier in the day, Zelaya warned that he would withdraw from the deal unless Congress held a vote on restoring him to the presidency, though the Micheletti government felt that Congress' vote was not as essential to the agreement as the creation of the unity government. As a result, Zelaya did not submit his recommendations for members of the new government and Micheletti announced he had "finalized the process of confirming a unity government," prompting Zelaya to pronounce the accord "dead," as reported by the BBC.

  • The United States promptly released a statement on Friday describing the State Department's discontent in relation to the way both parties had behaved, though the statement continued to express the Administration's confidence in the Accord:

    We were particularly disappointed by the unilateral statements made by both sides last night, which do not serve the spirit of the Tegucigalpa-San José Accord.... Complete and timely implementation of the Tegucigalpa-San José Accord is the path to that future, and the formation of a Government of Unity and National Reconciliation is the next vital step forward.

  • The Organization of American States also issued a statement on the failure to implement the Agreement.

    The Secretary General declared that the OAS will continue in all of its efforts to move forward the process of dialogue and urged President José Manuel Zelaya and Mr. Roberto Micheletti to reach an agreement in the formation of a Government of Unity and National Reconciliation that should, naturally, be presided by he who legitimately holds the office of President of the Honduran nation.

    To that end, "it is also essential that the Honduran National Congress issue its sovereign declaration on the pending point of the San José Agreement regarding the restoration of the Executive Power to its state prior to June 28 and until the end of the current term of government, January 27, 2010," Insulza said.

  • On Thursday, Senator Jim DeMint lifted the hold on the confirmations of Arturo Valenzuela as Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs and Thomas Shannon as the U.S. ambassador to Brazil, after accepting the United States' role in allowing the Hondurans decide the fate of their political system through a vote in Congress and recognition of the upcoming November 29th elections. According to a press release on the Senator's website, the announcement came after he "secured a commitment from the Obama administration to recognize the Honduran elections on November 29th, regardless of whether former President Manuel Zelaya is returned to office and regardless of whether the vote on reinstatement takes place before or after November 29th." The release continues, quoting Senator DeMint: "I trust Secretary Clinton and Mr. Shannon to keep their word, but this is the beginning of the process, not the end."

    This announcement led to concern that the United States is determined to recognize the November 29th elections regardless of whether the Tegucigalpa-San José Accords are fully implemented, and therefore has given the Honduran Congress and the Micheletti government an excuse to hold on to power. During the daily press briefing last Friday, Department spokesman Ian Kelly was repeatedly asked if Senator DeMint's statement was correct. Spokesman Kelly did not have an answer, however an official response to those questions was released on the State Department website later in the day, which ended with this statement: "Our commitment is to the Tegucigalpa-San José Accord and its implementation. Our commitment to support the Honduran elections is the product of that agreement. Failure to implement the accord could jeopardize recognition of the election by the international community."

  • Latin American countries, including Brazil, are "loudly demanding Mr. Zelaya's return," according to the Wall Street Journal. This had created speculation that the United States' role and image in Latin America could be jeopordized if the U.S. does not hold to their initial call for Zelaya's reinstatement.

    Over the weekend, Costa Rican President Oscar Arias, who played an important role in the initial drafting of the San José Accord, also made a statement on the breakdown of the new Accord. According to the Spanish newspaper El Dia, Arias affirmed that "the de facto Honduran Government never had the will to solve the political crisis resulting from the coup d'etat, and specified that 'they are only looking for, through delaying tactics, time to pass and for the elections to come (on November 29th), risking that the future Government will not be recognized by some countries.'"

  • According to RAJ at the "Honduras Coup 2009" blog, there is confusion on whether or not the Supreme Court will meet this week to discuss the legality of Zelaya's restitution. Reports early in the day yesterday suggested that the Honduran National Congress announced it will wait until November 17th for the reports it has requested from the Supreme Court and the attorney general. A later report suggested that the Supreme Court had determined it would not give the report to Congress because "it has an appeal of the decree that removed him from power before it." Yet a report issued around 8:00 pm Monday night suggested that the Supreme Court will convene on Wednesday to "analyze if the restitution of Manuel Zelaya Rosales should proceed, as the Tegucigalpa-San José Accord indicated."