Threats in Latin America as cited by Southcom: graphic
An interesting graphic by William Leogrande over at American University compiles threats cited by Southern Command leaders in their Posture Statements over the past 14 years.Leogrande commented in an accompanying article in the Huffington Post:
The graphic highlights how much Southcom has come to focus on criminal activity since the end of the Cold War, and on terrorismsince September 11, 2001. Social and economic problems and humanitarian issues receive only sporadic attention.
The threat of "narco-terrorism" is a thinly veiled reference to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The threat of "radical populism" is a thinly veiled reference Venezuela. Interestingly, Cuba, Washington's bête noire in Latin America for over half a century, received just three mentions, all in connection with the danger of mass migration.
As Leogrande noted, post- 9/11 there has been a heavy focus on terrorism in the region, though Southcom did not mentioned it from 2006-2008. The focus on terrorism picked up again in President Obama's first term in 2009. In the past two years the threats of "Terrorism" and "Narco-terrorism” were both mentioned. Interestingly, "Narco-terrorism" is now referred to as “crime-terrorism,” likely to account for the fact that the FARC, like other criminal groups, have expanded their criminal portfolio beyond drug trafficking.
Also noteworthy is that in 2010, gangs stopped appearing as a threat and in 2012 transnational organized crime emerged instead, likely due to the increased links between larger drug cartels in Mexico and Central American gangs. The focus on China, Russia and Iran since 2010 is also striking. As Greg Weeks pointed out –the focus on Iran might relate more to the nuclear controversy in recent years, while the House has been particularly concerned about Iranian groups allying with organized crime groups in the region.
The presence of these three countries in the region has been on the agenda in the majority of Congressional hearings on Latin America in the past few years; however, U.S. State Department officials have said that while they are always monitoring these issues, they are not concerned about the threats for the immediate future.
This matrix is a telling glance at trends in U.S. security concerns and priorities in the region -- take a look here.