Georgia and NATO: Recent Developments
So far in 2014, Georgian and NATO officials have held a number of high level discussions, including a meeting between Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili and NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen on February 5 and the first ever visit to Georgia by the NATO Military Committee two weeks ago. The statements coming out of these meetings intended to highlight the close relationship between the two, for instance that “Georgia is a strong and committed NATO partner,” that NATO supports “the [defense reform] efforts undertaken by Georgia,” and that NATO appreciates “Georgia’s strong contribution to the ISAF Operation[s].”
Georgia has been an aspiring NATO member since 2002, and these statements give the impression of warming relations between Georgia and NATO. However, in December, blogger and analyst Joshua Kucera noted that while NATO-Georgia discussions often yield positive proclamations, these statements are pretty repetitive and progress on Georgia’s ascension into NATO isn’t likely soon. Kucera writes, “there is a bit of the Zeno's paradox to Georgia's NATO progress, continually getting ‘closer’ while seemingly having a way to actually arrive.”
Nevertheless, remarks by Georgian officials in the past couple of months suggest that at least some of these officials want more concrete commitments from NATO regarding Georgia’s entry into the organization in 2014. First, Georgian President Giorgi Margvelashvili stated on December 4, "In the autumn of 2014 at the NATO summit, we expect from our partners quite serious consideration of Georgia's future in NATO.” Georgia’s Parliamentary Speaker, Davit Usupashvili, was even more direct in a January 13th speech, arguing that Georgia must receive a Membership Action Plan (MAP) from NATO at the annual summit, and that a failure to receive a MAP “is going to ruin and undermine political stability in the country.” A MAP is the final step before a country receives NATO membership, and in 2008 NATO voted not to grant Georgia a MAP, instead simply pledging that Georgia would become a NATO member in the future.
It is worth noting that Prime Minister Garibashvili stepped back from Usupashvili’s comments, saying: “If there is no MAP now, it will be later – it is not a principle [issue] ... But if there is no MAP, it will not pose a threat to and change our European integration.” More recently, both Usupashvili and Georgia’s Defense Minister seemed confident that Georgia would in fact receive instruments for closer cooperation with NATO at the 2014 summit, even if these instruments do not include a MAP.
However, the issue of a MAP continues to come up in news coverage of NATO-Georgia meetings, and some analysts believe that a delay in signing a MAP provides an additional argument for those in Georgia that oppose NATO integration. In an excellent overview of Georgia’s quest to obtain a MAP, analyst Liz Fuller disputes this line of thinking, pointing to opinion polls that consistently show public support for NATO integration even as the MAP signing has been delayed. Fuller also notes that Russian pressure, the capability of Georgia’s military, and the current administration’s shaky relationship with the opposition could all prevent NATO from offering Georgia a MAP this year.
One final actor to consider in Georgia’s quest for NATO integration is the United States, and recently some of Georgia’s supporters in Congress have expressed their desire to see Georgia’s NATO integration progress at a quicker pace. First, a Congressional delegation traveled to Georgia in January, where the delegation members expressed their support for Georgia’s NATO aspiration. More recently, a February 5 letter signed by 40 Congress members urges Secretary of State John Kerry to “advocate granting a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Georgia.” The letter also warns, “failure to recognize and reward [countries such as Georgia’s] significant efforts could discourage aspirant countries from pursuing further democratic reforms and weaken their commitment to partnering with Euro-Atlantic institutions.” It remains to be seen whether Congressional action or statements by some Georgian officials will lead to new commitments from NATO to Georgia in 2014.