Colombia Elections 2011: Importance of the local level
Colombia has seen remarkable declines in levels of violence and improvements in security over the past decade. Yet, in the past few years, security trends have shown noted deterioration. Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos has received heavy criticism for changing the government's security plan to one focusing more on social progress and addressing key issues such as poverty, urban violence and land reform. Analysts are looking at the upcoming municipal elections on October 30th as a critical test of the Santos presidency, especially by the threat of illegal armed actors looking to regain influence in rural areas.
While there are several important factors that make these local elections important, one in particular has caught the attention of the international press - the violence. The campaign season has already led to 159 ‘violent incidents’ including 41 murders, 23 attempted murders, 7 kidnappings and 88 death threats, according to the Electoral Observation Mission (MOE). Even though there is some dispute over these numbers compared with the government's records, the problem of the violence itself cannot be denied.
Responding to the high violence, the central government claims to have been putting more effort into protecting candidates and guaranteeing election-day security than ever before. According to Minister of the Interior Germán Vargas Lleras, "Never has there been such a definite strategy against violence and electoral crime." At least 72 candidates who directly complained of threats were provided with bodyguards, in addition to increased numbers of military and police deployed around the country. Yet, this is not enough to protect the 100,000 some-odd candidates who are up for election this year. In fact, for the next few days Vargas and the new Minister of Defense, Juan Carlos Pinzón, will be touring 22 departments in order to evaluate electoral security risks and to order measures taken to void them.
Local elections are generally more violent than national elections because illegal armed groups and criminal networks require local political compliance in order to better their own consolidation of power. Once a group "acquires" a political office, they are better suited to arrange for their own protection, and to aid their business. At an event on Colombia's elections and consolidation plan, held at the Brookings Institution last week, Claudia López, a Colombian political analyst, highlighted one facet of this relationship - greater chances for open opportunities to launder money, especially through governmental contracts. Local influence and protection gives one armed group a strategic advantage over the others.
How the rearrangement of local power will affect national level security, implementation of laws such as the Ley de Tierras, and development programs is still to be determined.
This blog was written by CIP Intern Jessica Lippman.